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Diario Asi Somos – Según un estudio realizado por IDESA algunas provincias están intensificando el reclamo para que se deje de derivar el 15% de la masa coparticipable a la ANSES. El fundamento del reclamo es que esa disposición dejó de tener sustento cuando se eliminó el régimen de capitalización. Sin embargo, la situación financiera de la ANSES es tan precaria que devolver esos recursos a las provincias le implicaría entrar nuevamente en déficit operativo. La solución no pasa por mantener la situación y seguir degradando el federalismo sino en replantear la política previsional y cumplir con el mandato constitucional de acordar una nueva ley de coparticipación federal.
En el año 1993, el Estado nacional y las provincias firmaron un Pacto Fiscal por el cual se acordó –entre otros aspectos– detraer el 15% de la masa coparticipable para dirigirla a la ANSES. La finalidad era financiar la crisis del sistema previsional de aquel momento y la transición hacia el sistema mixto –combinación de capitalización y reparto– que se aprobó ese mismo año. A finales del 2008, el régimen de capitalización fue eliminado y la ANSES se apropió de los fondos acumulados en las AFJP y el flujo de los aportes personales. Sin embargo, aunque la razón que legitimaba la detracción del 15% de la masa coparticipable desapareció (que era generar el régimen de capitalización), la detracción a las provincias se mantuvo. Para ello se contó con la anuencia de la mayoría de los legisladores provinciales.
Lamentablemente, el oscurantismo que impera en el sistema estadístico nacional dificulta medir con precisión los efectos financieros derivados de esta decisión. De todas formas, con datos oficiales del Ministerio de Economía se puede aproximar la relevancia que este 15% de la masa coparticipable tiene en las relaciones fiscales entre la Nación y las provincias. Según esta fuente oficial se observa que en el 1° semestre del año 2012:
• Los ingresos del sistema previsional nacional fueron de $21 mil millones promedio mensual y las prestaciones previsionales abonadas $19,6 mil millones promedio mensual, o sea, hubo un excedente previsional de $1,4 mil millones por mes.
• En el mismo período, los recursos provenientes del 15% de la masa coparticipable que corresponden a las provincias fueron $1,8 mil millones por mes.
• Esto significa que, sin la detracción del 15% de la masa coparticipable a las provincias, la ANSES entraría en un déficit de unos $400 millones por mes.
Esta información oficial pone en evidencia que el reclamo de algunas provincias por la devolución de este 15% de la masa coparticipable colisiona con un sistema previsional en estado de insolvencia. Si las provincias recuperaran esta fuente de financiamiento, en consonancia con el régimen federal, la ANSES entraría nuevamente en déficit operativo. De allí que el conflicto entre la Nación y las provincias sea de muy difícil resolución.
La necesidad de mantener la apropiación desnuda el manejo oportunista del sistema previsional. El testimonio más elocuente son las moratorias previsionales con las que se otorgaron indiscriminadamente (es decir, sin consideraciones sobre el nivel de ingreso de los solicitantes) más 2,6 millones de jubilaciones sin aportes.
En el mismo sentido de oportunismo se anota el haber generado excedentes previsionales a través de la “licuación” del valor real de las jubilaciones superiores a la mínima, negándoles la movilidad, lo que derivó en una importante acumulación de juicios contra la ANSES. El resultado es que la ANSES se ha convertido en un ente financieramente insolvente que necesita de los fondos de las provincias para subsistir.
El Congreso de la Nación convalida con su pasividad y la indiferencia el desmanejo del sistema previsional y la apropiación de los fondos provinciales. Así, se fuerza a una creciente intervención del Poder Judicial a través de cientos de miles de juicios de jubilados que reclaman la falta de movilidad y de las provincias que procuran recuperar la parte que les corresponde del 15% de la masa coparticipable. Frente a estos conflictos, la Justicia puede aportar paliativos. Pero escapa a sus posibilidades instrumentar soluciones que devuelvan sustentabilidad y equidad al sistema previsional. Por eso, es fundamental que el Congreso de la Nación pase a jugar un rol activo en replantear la política previsional. El desafío es complejo, pero mientras más se profundicen los desequilibrios de la ANSES más costoso será revertir la crisis.
La no sustentabilidad previsional, a pesar del nivel extremo de centralización de recursos a favor de la Nación, debería motorizar una nueva ley de coparticipación. Desde 1996 está pendiente el mandato que la Constitución Nacional encomendó al Congreso de la Nación de sancionar una nueva ley de coparticipación para dar racionalidad y equidad a la distribución de los impuestos. Con inteligencia y visión estratégica, la crisis podría ser la oportunidad para mejorar la traumática relación entre la Nación y las provincias.
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